As the conflict in Ukraine approaches a possible turning point, ‘Crime and peace: The future of organized crime beyond the Russo-Ukrainian war ‘ explores the post-conflict risks and transformations that may shape the criminal underworld in Ukraine, Russia and beyond.
Drawing on three years of research by GI-TOC’s Eurasia Observatory, the report offers a thematic risk assessment, addressing five key areas: people, control, expertise, hardware, and money. Each theme reflects how new opportunities for organized crime will be generated in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
Key findings show that:
- Veterans, IDPs, refugees and those in economic hardship are vulnerable to recruitment into illicit economies, from drug and sex trafficking to ICT-enabled fraud and recruitment into organized crime.
- The end of martial law in Ukraine may reduce state control and allow criminal networks to expand. Once the fighting stops, there is a risk of a reunification of the Russian and Ukrainian underworlds under new leadership structures.
- War-generated expertise, including drones and special operations skills, could revolutionize the methods and scope of organized crime.
- Surplus military hardware risks fueling global arms trafficking, potentially feeding conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
- Reconstruction funding, if poorly managed and monitored, couldtrigger a surge in corruption, labour exploitation, and racketeering. Criminals may also look to launder illicit funds into the construction and real estate sectors.
The report stresses that policymakers must act now to mitigate these emerging risks. Drawing lessons from past conflicts in the Balkans, Latin America and Africa, the brief calls for targeted strategies to prevent the spread of post-war criminality and preserve the rule of law. As peace negotiations progress and geopolitical alignments shift, understanding the criminal landscape in the shadow of war has never been more critical.
