“We have heard many times that the West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian. This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it seems that everything is heading towards this.” – Vladimir Putin
Ukrainians recently commemorated three years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion against their homeland. Since Feb. 24, 2022, not a single day has passed without what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently described as “aerial terror” inflicted by Russia’s widespread and systematic drone and missile strikes. On Feb. 23, 2025, the eve of the conflict’s anniversary, Russia carried out the single largest drone attack of the war, launching more than 200 drones overnight.
According to the latest United Nations report, in these three years, 12,654 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, including 673 children, and 29,392 more have been injured as a result of Russia’s invasion. In addition to the staggering civilian toll, Russia’s persistent aerial attacks have destroyed 80 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and damaged or destroyed at least 1,300 healthcare facilities, 3,800 educational institutions, and 250,000 buildings housing about 3.4 million people.
Despite clear evidence that Russia is violating international law, meaningful accountability for aerial attacks—critical to countering propaganda and securing justice for victims—may be difficult to obtain. This challenge is not unique to Ukraine. To date, no international tribunal has held individual perpetrators liable for war crimes or crimes against humanity resulting from unlawful drone and missile attacks. But it is possible.
For the past 18 months, the International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School (IHRC), which I direct, has worked in collaboration with the International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) to fill this accountability gap. Applying rigorous legal analysis to 22 selected drone and missile attacks, we prepared a Legal Memorandum for the Prosecutor General of Ukraine. In it, we conclude that Russia’s aerial attacks on critical infrastructure and civilian objects likely amount to four counts of crimes against humanity and five counts of war crimes.
Among these crimes, one stands out for its devastating consequences: the crime against humanity of extermination. While extermination is often overshadowed by or conflated with genocide, it is no less egregious in its scope and effects. Prosecuting this crime is essential not only to deliver justice for Ukraine, but to uphold the international legal framework that protects civilians in armed conflict.
What is the Crime against Humanity of Extermination?
First prosecuted at Nuremberg, the crime against humanity of extermination was developed to hold perpetrators accountable when they contributed to policies or planning of mass death, even if they were too far removed from individual killings to be charged with murder. Since then, charges of extermination have been brought before the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR), as well as at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in relation to the conflict in Sudan. More recently, the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Palestine posited that Israel’s destruction of Gaza’s health care system may amount to extermination. Russia’s conduct in Ukraine clearly warrants similar legal scrutiny.
As codified in Article 7 of the Rome Statute, extermination—when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack against the civilian population—is defined as the killing of one or more persons in the context of a mass killing. Death can result either directly or indirectly. That includes the intentional infliction of conditions of life, such as the deprivation of basic necessities like food, water, and medicine, calculated to bring about the destruction of part of a population.
How is Russia carrying out extermination in Ukraine?
“Not Even Ashes of It Remain”: Russia’s Intent to Exterminate
Russian officials have acted with intent and knowledge that their aerial attacks would result in the deaths of thousands of Ukrainian civilians—either directly or through the infliction of deadly conditions. The 22 attacks examined in the IHRC/IPHR memorandum illustrate Russia’s strategy of total war: the intentional and systematic targeting of civilians and civilian objects to demoralize the Ukrainian population, erode Ukrainian identity, and destroy civilian life.
Russian officials have repeatedly invoked eliminationist rhetoric. Their stated goal is for Ukraine be “reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state as part of the Russian world” and dismantled such that “not even ashes of it remain.” State officials offer baseless claims that Russians are battling to liberate Ukraine “from Nazi filth,” forced by the West to fight to “the last Ukrainian.”
For example, in November 2022, Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Boris Chernyshov called Russian drone and missile attacks “an expression of our hatred, our holy hatred,” adding that Ukrainians will “be sitting without gas, without light, and without everything else… They have to freeze and rot over there.” In March 2024, State Duma member Andry Lugovoy said that Kharkiv, Kyiv, and other cities “should be deprived of electricity to the point that it becomes totally unlivable.” This language is not abstract propaganda. These statements reflect Russia’s intentional strategy of extermination—operationalized through its relentless and catastrophic aerial campaign.
It is implausible that civilian deaths, whether caused directly by aerial attacks or indirectly by the devastation left in their wake, were unintentional or unknown to Russian officials. Week after week, month after month, year after year, Russia has sent tens of thousands of highly precise, exceedingly destructive weapons at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, densely populated areas, and civilian objects such as homes, shops, schools, and hospitals. The devastating humanitarian effects of these attacks, coupled with Russian officials’ rhetoric, make clear that Russia’s relentless aerial campaign against Ukraine is intended to exterminate Ukrainian civilians.
Russia has deliberately attacked Ukraine’s civilian population and infrastructure with both high-precision and indiscriminate weapons, creating conditions that cause mass civilian deaths.
The Use of Highly Precise and Indiscriminate Weapons
Our Memorandum provides a technical analysis of the weapons used in Russia’s attacks. Russia’s selection of highly precise weapons, such as the Shahed-136 drone and Kh-101 missile, to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure demonstrates deliberate targeting. These weapons require prior trajectory planning and cannot distinguish targets autonomously, meaning that Russian operators must select their targets prior to deployment. Further, these weapons’ advanced navigational systems minimize deviation from the predetermined flight path. Their accuracy renders claims of accidental strikes implausible. Rather, the specifications of these weapons underscore that when Russian aerial assaults kill civilians and damage and destroy homes, hospitals, schools, and critical infrastructure, it is because Russia intended to do so.
Russia has also deployed inherently indiscriminate weapons, such as cluster munitions and Tornado MRLS, to strike densely populated areas of Ukraine. For example, in October 2022, Russia launched 83 missiles at Kyiv, including highly precise Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles, as well as imprecise weapons like Tornado MRLS and S-300, which are inherently incapable of distinguishing between military and civilian objects. The civilian toll was foreseeable and consistent with a pattern of Russian disregard for distinction and proportionality.
Direct Killing of Ukrainian Civilians
Russia’s aerial campaign—targeting densely populated urban areas and residential buildings with high-precision weapons—has claimed the lives of over 12,000 Ukrainians. Russia’s attacks are unequivocally systematic.
Our Memorandum identifies a pattern of strikes timed to maximize civilian casualties, including attacks on residential buildings at night and on commercial centers during peak daytime hours. For example:
- At approximately 11 a.m. on Jul. 14, 2022, a time when most people are at work, at school, or running errands, Russia launched Kalibr 3M-14 cruise missiles at the city center of Vinnytsia, killing 23 civilians and injuring 100 more.
- At 9:30 p.m. on August 17, 2022, a time when most civilians are at home, Russian forces attacked civilian dormitories in Kharkiv, killing 19 civilians.
These attacks, along with others detailed in our Memorandum, underscore the systematic nature of Russia’s aerial campaign and represent merely a fraction of the countless Russian assaults that have directly resulted in thousands of civilian casualties. They serve as a stark illustration of the grim reality faced by Ukraine’s civilian population: living with the harrowing knowledge that they are not safe in their own homes. They could be killed at any moment, regardless of their location or activities.
Indirect Killing of Ukrainian Civilians
Russia’s destruction of critical infrastructure has created lethal conditions. Its attacks on Ukraine’s electric grid are concentrated during the coldest winter months, when access to heat and electricity is essential for civilian survival and when temperatures average roughly 3°C and plummet as low as -20°C. These strikes have crippled centralized heating systems, leaving Ukraine’s civilian population at risk of developing fatal health complications. The disruption of services disproportionately impacts Ukraine’s most vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, and those with chronic conditions. Attacks on energy infrastructure also severely impair Ukraine’s water distribution system. Russian attacks put over 3.7 million Ukrainians at risk of consuming contaminated drinking water.
The debilitation of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has grave, reverberating impacts on Ukraine’s health care system, severely impeding the nation’s ability to provide quality physical and mental health care. Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure have left hospitals and medical centers without the electricity, water, and fuel needed to reliably and adequately provide health care services. These attacks, for instance, have disrupted the delivery of vaccines and essential medications, halted critical medical procedures, and deprived at least 8% of Ukraine’s population of access to primary healthcare facilities.
The impact is catastrophic. In Kharkiv, hospitals have been forced to suspend surgeries due to prolonged blackouts, while in Poltava, medical personnel have reported rushing through surgeries due to the risks of power outages. A comprehensive survey conducted by Physicians for Human Rights and Truth Hounds revealed 36 cases of permanent health complications and 20 patient deaths directly attributed to power outages at hospitals. Taken together, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure have crippled an already overburdened healthcare system, creating deadly conditions for civilians.
Russia’s direct targeting of hospitals further amplifies this devastation through the destruction of medical facilities and the killing of medical professionals and patients. As of August 2024, Russian forces had carried out 1,940 attacks on healthcare facilities across Ukraine. In September 2024, a Russian drone strike on a hospital in Sumy killed nine civilians and injured 21 others. With the health care system pushed to the brink, it is reasonable to anticipate further lethal and far-reaching consequences when medical facilities are damaged or destroyed, as civilians will be deprived of both routine and life-saving medical care.
Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have also disrupted Ukraine’s internet connectivity, causing communication networks to collapse. As a result, these attacks have impeded Ukrainians’ access to information essential for their survival, such as evacuation routes, relief availability, and early warning systems. Notably, air sirens are often inoperable during power outages. In Kharkiv, for instance, Russian strikes disrupted the city’s air raid alarm for days. A 90-year-old woman reportedly died because she was unable to access updates about humanitarian assistance due to a power outage. There is no doubt that the cumulative impact of these attacks inflicts conditions of life calculated to bring about the deaths of Ukrainian civilians.
“Our Weapon is Truth”: Demanding Accountability
Three years into Russia’s total war on Ukraine, the scope of devastation demands action. Russia is not merely targeting the military on the battlefield—it is waging war against Ukrainian civilians in their homes, schools, and hospitals.
National and international accountability for Russia’s war must include prosecution of the crime against humanity of extermination. Russia’s actions threaten not only Ukraine but the international system of laws and institutions meant to protect civilian lives and prevent mass atrocities. If impunity prevails, it will erode legal norms and protections that are already under strain.
Prosecuting extermination is not only a matter of justice—it is essential to uphold foundational international legal principles, to provide redress to victims, and to ensure the world acknowledges the truth about Russia’s total war. This truth is of utmost importance now, when narratives around the origins and nature of the conflict will determine how it ends, and whether peace endures.
FEATURED IMAGE: A picture remains on the wall of a kindergarten building that was damaged during the Russian invasion in Kharkiv’s Saltivka district on January 20, 2025 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
