London left embarrassed amid fears Trump could back Russia’s plan – analysis
Dan Sabbagh
David Lammy had been expecting to host a fresh round of Ukraine peace talks in London today, bringing together the US, Ukraine and Europe and so maintain relationships between traditional allies even as direct US-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war continue.
But the British minister has been embarrassed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s sudden decision late on Tuesday not to turn up and a rising chorus of leaks apparently from the US and Russia designed to derail the discussions and to promote the idea that the most significant discussions are those taking place directly between Washington and Moscow.
Initial indications are that Russia is willing to trade territory it does not control in Ukraine – in effect fresh air – for a US recognition of its 2014 seizure of Crimea, in other words a formal acknowledgement that it is possible to change borders by force, in effect creating an extraordinary precedent.
The Kremlin’s signals are carefully calibrated and almost certainly designed to make it difficult for Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signalled – as Zelenskyy repeated on Tuesday – that it could not legally recognise the seizure of Crimea or any of its other territory that Russia occupies.
But Russia is banking on the idea that Ukraine is weary after over three years of war and that its proposal is a reasonable counter to western suggestions, backed by the US, Ukraine and Europe, that there should be an immediate and full ceasefire to allow other talks to take place.
It is so far unclear how far Russia is serious even in this offer at a time when it has seemingly stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilians with nine killed in a bus attack today. But that may develop quickly in an environment where briefing to the media is coming ahead of diplomatic niceties.
And with Donald Trump seemingly desperate for a quick ceasefire and frustrated with the lack of progress, it is a proposal the White House may start pushing in public.
Key events
Russia’s armed forces still lack certain weapons despite significantly increasing arms production last year, president Vladimir Putin told a meeting of the state Military-Industrial Commission on Wednesday, Reuters reports.
Tass reports that Putin said the supply of weapons to the area of the special military operation – Russia’s preferred term for its invasion of Ukraine – was a top priority.
He said that the army of the Russian Federation needed to remain one step ahead, and Tass reports he ordered the acceleration of production of robotic systems, unmanned boats and combat lasers.
The Russian defence ministry has claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian drone over Tatarstan, a region to the east of Moscow, some considerable distance from the main conflict zone.
Kremlin: talks continue with US, but no direct discussions with Ukraine or Europe
The Kremlin has said that Russia is engaged in direct talks with the US over the Ukraine war, but that there are no ongoing discussions with Europe or with Ukraine.
In his daily media briefing, Tass reports Dmitry Peskov also dismissed media reports of what might be in any US-Russian peace proposal, saying that there is a lot of fake news around.
He said there was still a lot to be worked out on any potential settlement, and that Russia remains opposed to the deployment of any European force inside Ukraine.
Peskov added that the situation was quite fluid, but cautioned that negotiations should take place in silence rather than in the media.
Asked specifically about US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff visiting Moscow, Peskov declined to comment. However, he did say Russia welcomed efforts by the US to mediate the conflict.
Russia staged its latest invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, having seized Crimea in 2014.
Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Wednesday its forces had gained control over the village of Tarasivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The claim has not been verified.
Pjotr Sauer
The FT on Tuesday reported that the Kremlin would soften its demands in direct discussions with the US, and would accept a freezing of the conflict on the frontline if the US agreed that Crimea, seized by Moscow in 2014, belonged to Russia.
A source familiar with Moscow’s thinking confirmed to the Guardian that Vladimir Putin has offered to freeze the conflict in Ukraine along the current frontlines during recent talks with Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy.
However, the source cautioned that it remains unclear what other demands Putin may present – and warned that the apparent concession could be a tactic to draw Trump into accepting broader Russian terms. In addition to previously reported demands, such as Ukraine not joining Nato, Russia could also seek an end to western military aid for Kyiv and a ban on the presence of western troops in Ukraine.
Russian state media Tass reports that Ukraine’s armed forces attacked the Belgorod region with 142 drones in the last 24 hours. It also reports that two houses have been attacked and three more damaged in the Kursk region after they were struck by Ukrainian drones. Acting governor Alexander Khinshtein reported no casualties.
In Ukraine an air alert has sounded in the Kherson region.
London left embarrassed amid fears Trump could back Russia’s plan – analysis
Dan Sabbagh
David Lammy had been expecting to host a fresh round of Ukraine peace talks in London today, bringing together the US, Ukraine and Europe and so maintain relationships between traditional allies even as direct US-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war continue.
But the British minister has been embarrassed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s sudden decision late on Tuesday not to turn up and a rising chorus of leaks apparently from the US and Russia designed to derail the discussions and to promote the idea that the most significant discussions are those taking place directly between Washington and Moscow.
Initial indications are that Russia is willing to trade territory it does not control in Ukraine – in effect fresh air – for a US recognition of its 2014 seizure of Crimea, in other words a formal acknowledgement that it is possible to change borders by force, in effect creating an extraordinary precedent.
The Kremlin’s signals are carefully calibrated and almost certainly designed to make it difficult for Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signalled – as Zelenskyy repeated on Tuesday – that it could not legally recognise the seizure of Crimea or any of its other territory that Russia occupies.
But Russia is banking on the idea that Ukraine is weary after over three years of war and that its proposal is a reasonable counter to western suggestions, backed by the US, Ukraine and Europe, that there should be an immediate and full ceasefire to allow other talks to take place.
It is so far unclear how far Russia is serious even in this offer at a time when it has seemingly stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilians with nine killed in a bus attack today. But that may develop quickly in an environment where briefing to the media is coming ahead of diplomatic niceties.
And with Donald Trump seemingly desperate for a quick ceasefire and frustrated with the lack of progress, it is a proposal the White House may start pushing in public.
Ukraine delegation arrives in London after top-level talks downgraded
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has arrived in London, accompanied by Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov and foreign minister Andrii Sybiha.
In a series of posts to social media Yermak said “despite everything, we will work for peace.”
“Today we will talk about ways to achieve a complete and unconditional ceasefire as the first step towards a full-fledged settlement process and achieving a just and sustainable peace.”
He said the path was not easy, but Ukraine remained committed to it, and that the positions taken by Ukraine in previous talks showed that his country was not an obstacle to peace.
The number of people injured by a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia yesterday has increased to 42, including a pregnant woman, according to local officials.
Dan Sabbagh
Dan Sabbagh is the Guardian’s defence and security editor
The UK Foreign Office has confirmed that ministerial Ukraine peace talks with US and European counterparts due to be held today have been postponed, amid speculation that Russia has abandoned its claims to Ukrainian territory it does not occupy, and after US secretary of state Marco Rubio said he could not attend.
A short statement from the Foreign Office announced that ministerial meetings that had been scheduled to start this morning would not now take place and would be replaced by behind the scenes discussions held by officials, clarifying a carefully worded statement made late last night by foreign secretary David Lammy after he had spoken to Rubio.
Posting on social media just before midnight, Lammy said his discussions with Rubio were productive but hinted that they would take place at a slightly lower level. “Talks continue at pace and officials will meet in London tomorrow. This is a critical moment for Ukraine, Britain and Euro-Atlantic security,” he had said.
Britain had placed an important emphasis on the talks, with delegations from France and Germany also due to participate, but the downgrade to the discussions comes as leaks suggest that Russia is willing to abandon its territorial claims to three Ukrainian regions it only partially occupies in return for the US recognising the annexation of Crimea.
Rubio indicated he would be “rescheduling my trip to the UK in the coming months”.
