Summary highlights
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Conflict, coups and containers: why the Sahel cocaine routes were disrupted.
Northbound trans-Sahelian trafficking routes underpin a substantial minority of cocaine exports from West Africa to Europe. While available evidence indicates that these routes experienced a resurgence between 2019 and 2023, recent research reveals that this trend is likely to have been disrupted by political upheaval and armed conflicts since mid-2023. Trafficking volumes through northern Niger are reported to have fallen sharply, though trafficking routes through northern Mali remain largely resilient and have restructured operations. Indications of significant cocaine trafficking in southern Mali should largely not be read as north-bound flows. Instead, they reflect West Africa’s growing role as a recontainerization hub, with routes between coastal points of import and export shaped by the export potential of subregional maritime ports.
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The shadow constellation: how Starlink devices are shaping conflict and crime in the Sahel.
Starlink satellite internet technology is a growing influence in conflict dynamics in the Sahel. Violent extremist groups, including Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), are exploiting the portable, high-speed connectivity to enhance their operations, coordinate in real-time and evade detection in areas with poor telecommunications infrastructure. Although Niger and Chad legalized Starlink in March 2025 to improve regulation, smuggling networks are likely to continue to traffic devices from Nigeria and Libya along established corridors, charging inflated prices for both equipment and subscriptions, and permitting armed groups and criminal networks to access this technology. While the technology brings connectivity benefits to remote regions, this capacity to empower criminal networks complicates security responses in the conflict-ridden Sahel.
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Canary Islands migrant smugglers ramp up to meet surging demand.
More migrants to the European Union arrive in the Canary Islands from West and North Africa than by any other route, and many of them have been displaced from northbound trans-Sahelian alternatives. Regional conflict dynamics are contributing to its surging popularity. Smuggling networks in Senegal and Mauritania have responded by becoming more professional and efficient, and they cater to an increasingly eclectic range of clients. Conflict dynamics and economic stresses suggest that movement on the route — the world’s deadliest for migrants — looks set to rise further.
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About this issue
The 12th issue of the Risk Bulletin of Illicit Economies in West Africa examines how conflict dynamics in the Central Sahel are reshaping — and in turn being shaped by — criminal economies and modernity’s megatrends, including digital innovation. From satellite internet to trans-Sahelian trafficking routes, these stories point to the adaptation of criminal networks to globalized trends and technologies, while illustrating how illicit networks change in response to state fragility, militarization and changing market opportunities.
In Niger, the increasing use of smuggled Starlink devices by armed groups, traffickers and civilians reflects both the absence of state-controlled telecommunications infrastructure in peripheral regions and the growing integration of global technologies into illicit economies. The widespread availability of these portable satellite internet systems — many trafficked from neighbouring countries — is transforming the way information is shared and operations are coordinated across borders, including by armed groups and criminal networks. This risks reinforcing regional criminal networks in areas where the state is largely absent.
Bisecting similar geographies, the upwards trend in the trans-Sahelian cocaine trade is likely to have been disrupted by the resurgence of conflict in northern Mali, and Niger’s 2023 coup. As routes adapt to insecurity, some traffickers in Niger are turning away from the drug trade and towards the lucrative gold sector.
Conflict dynamics in northern Mali have also influenced irregular migration patterns, contributing to displacement away from the Central Mediterranean route, towards maritime smuggling routes from Senegal and Mauritania towards the Canary Islands. The Canary Islands route — the deadliest irregular migration route in the world — is becoming increasingly tied into Sahelian conflict dynamics, and beginning to reshape the profile of those on the move. Smuggling networks have become increasingly professionalized to cater to swelling demand, keeping prices steady and enhancing the efficiency of operations.
Together, these articles show how illicit economies in West Africa are becoming more regionalized and increasingly shaped by global forces — whether in the form of conflict-driven reorganization, the repurposing of commercial technologies or the enduring draw of international markets. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime continues to provide analysis that captures these evolving dynamics, tracing the links between local vulnerabilities, regional reconfigurations and global criminal opportunity.
