The independent MP Monique Ryan has won Kooyong in Melbourne, holding off her Liberal challenger, but Nicolette Boele, another Climate 200-backed candidate, is expected to fall short on Sydney’s north shore.
The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, on Monday projected that Ryan would maintain her slim lead in the Melbourne seat, where she led by about 700 votes with a few thousand left to count.
Amelia Hamer gained a 0.3% primary vote swing toward the Liberals in Kooyong, held by the former Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg until 2022, when he was deposed by Ryan. Ryan’s primary vote increased by 3.3%.
In Bradfield, on Sydney’s north shore, the Liberal candidate, Gisele Kapterian, was projected to defeat second-time challenger Boele by a few hundred votes.
Kapterian will succeed the retiring shadow minister Paul Fletcher by holding the seat on a razor-thin margin for the Liberals.
Labor was expected to win Bean in the ACT after a surge in support for the independent candidate, Jessie Price, had threatened to knock off David Smith.
The southern Canberra seat, which was created in 2019, was surprisingly close, with Price achieving a primary vote of 26.6% but trailing Smith 49.9% to 50.1% on a two-candidate margin.
The Greens would hold on to the Brisbane seat of Ryan after a three-cornered contest with Labor and the Liberals, Green said on Monday.
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Elizabeth Watson-Brown secured a second term despite suffering a 1.5% drop in first preference votes. The ALP’s Rebecca Hack was up almost 6% on her primary vote.
Four seats remained in doubt more than a week after the election due to complicated preference counting.
The Liberal-held seats of Monash, Longman and Flinders were yet to be determined, while Labor faced a potential upset in Calwell due to a number of independent challengers running against the first-time candidate Basem Abdo.
