Portugal’s incumbent, centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has won the country’s third snap general election in three years – but once again fallen well short of a majority – as the underperforming socialists were left vying for second place with the far-right Chega party, which took a record 22% of the vote.
By midnight on Sunday, with 99% of the votes counted, the AD – led by the prime minister, Luís Montenegro – had won 32.1% of the vote and taken 86 seats in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly, leaving it far shy of the 116 needed for a majority. The Socialist party (PS) had taken 23.4% of the vote t0 Chega’s 22.6%, and the two were tied on 58 seats each.
In the last election, held 14 months ago, the AD won 80 seats, the PS 78 and Chega 50.
Chega’s leader, André Ventura, said his party’s impressive showing at the polls – well up on the 18% of the vote it took last time round – had ended 50 years of conservative and socialist governments and “killed bipartisanship in Portugal”.
But Chega’s elation will be tempered by Montenegro’s explicit refusal to strike any deals with Ventura’s party. “Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons,” Montenegro has said. “It isn’t reliable in its thinking; it behaves like a political weathervane, always changing its mind, and it’s not suited to the exercise of government.”
The small Liberal Initiative party – which could throw its weight behind Montenegro, bringing the AD around seven extra seats – has also categorically refused to do anything that would help Chega into power.
Despite the AD’s victory, Montenegro will face another fragmented and awkward legislature if invited to form a new government by the president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, while the Socialists will be carrying out grim postmortems into what went wrong. Marina Costa Lobo, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon, told Agence France-Presse that Chega was “the big winner of the night”.
The early election was triggered in March after Montenegro used a confidence vote in his minority government to try to head off growing scrutiny relating to a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021 and which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
Faced with questions over possible conflicts of interest, the prime minister – who has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches – said he hoped the vote would “end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”. But he failed to win the confidence of MPs and a fresh election was called.
Speaking after he voted on Sunday morning, Montenegro said he was hoping for a good turnout in an election that would bring stability and “produce positive solutions [and] greater capacity for the country to grow and prosper, so that there can be greater social justice and more opportunities”.
The PS leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, called for huge participation after he cast his ballot this morning, saying he did not want there to be any unpleasant surprises on Monday.
“This is the time to call for participation, for respect for democracy, for civic participation, for tolerant respect for everyone – but with a lot of participation, that’s what I want,” he said.
The electoral campaign has focused on issues such as housing, public services and safety. Immigration – one of Chega’s priorities – has also risen up the agenda, and Montenegro’s caretaker government was recently accused of pandering to the far right after it announced the expulsion of 18,000 irregular migrants earlier this month.
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Chega, which was formed six years ago, has sought to capitalise on widespread dissatisfaction with Portugal’s mainstream left and right parties as the country continues to suffer a housing crisis, soaring rental and property prices, stressed health and education systems, and an average monthly wage of €1,602 (£1,346).
But Chega’s vows to clean up politics – and its hardline stance on immigration and people abusing the benefits system – have recently been undermined by the kind of corruption and sleaze scandals it has been railing against.
In January, Ventura’s party expelled one of its MPs after he was accused of stealing suitcases at several airports. Another member of the party was caught drunk-driving the same month, while a third has been charged with paying for oral sex with an underage male who was 15 at the time.
The Chega leader’s final few days of campaigning were also interrupted by ill health.
After twice falling ill at rallies this week and receiving hospital treatment for oesophageal spasms caused by gastric reflux and high blood pressure, Ventura made a surprise appearance at his party’s final campaign event on Friday.
He shrugged off concerns about his health as he voted on Sunday, urging people to get out and vote.
“Today is not about my health,” Ventura said in Lisbon. “It’s the health of democracy that is at stake … Make your choice, leave your house, choose the future of the country, regardless of what it is, regardless of who it is. Today it is in our hands.”
