Fears of a Labor bloodbath in Victoria in the federal election were utterly confounded, with the Liberals recording a statewide swing against them and the party all but certain to lose several seats.
Late on Saturday night, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, Labor had won 23 of the state’s 38 seats while the Coalition was at six – three held by the Nationals and three by the Liberals. Independents had three, with six still in doubt. The Liberals have seen a swing of nearly 2% away from them.
The Liberals had campaigned hard in the state, running advertising tying Anthony Albanese to the long-serving and and poor-polling state Labor government, led by Jacinta Allan, in the hope of clawing back outer suburban seats such as Aston, Chisholm, Dunkley and McEwen, and gaining seats such as Bruce, Hawke and Gorton.
Even senior members of Victorian Labor expected a swing away from the party of about 1.5%-2.5% – with some members of state caucus actively considering a leadership challenge against Allan if several seats were lost.
But instead there has been a swing of about 1.8% towards the party, on top of the 54.8% two-party-preferred result in 2022, itself a high watermark.
Labor is expected to hold Chisholm, Dunkley and Aston, as well as winning the seats of Deakin and Menzies from the Liberals.
In Deakin, one of the most marginal seats going into the election, Labor’s Matt Gregg is expected to defeat the Coalition housing spokesperson, Michael Sukkar, while in in Menzies, Labor’s Gabriel Ng is on track to take the seat from the Liberal MP Keith Wolahan.
Victorian Labor insiders claim the result in the eastern suburbs is a repudiation of the Coalition’s election commitment to cut funding to the Suburban Rail Loop – one of the state government’s flagship infrastructure projects, which runs through the three electorates.
In Macnamara, which stretches across Melbourne’s inner bayside suburbs, Labor’s Josh Burns is expected retain the seat, defying expectations a result would take days, as it was among the tightest three-cornered contests in the country in 2022.
About 10% of the electorate’s population is Jewish, making it the second-largest Jewish electorate in the country. The community was angered by what it said was Labor’s failure to stand firmly with Israel amid the war in Gaza, sparked by the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023.
Burns, one of a few Jewish MPs in federal parliament, also faced a relentless campaign from Advance Australia and J-United during the campaign. But there has been a 5% swing towards him.
“I honestly didn’t think this night would happen. We had blue to the right and green to the left, but the red army turned up,” Burns told party faithful at Port Melbourne Bowling Club.
“We have had a lot thrown at us and the lesson is one where you have to be true to yourself and this party.”
The Greens leader Adam Bandt suffered a 5.4% swing against him in his seat of Melbourne, leaving the seat in doubt on Saturday night. Bandt remained ahead on primary votes, but Liberal preferences were expected to flow to Labor.
Bandt did not address the swing against him when speaking to supporters, but said the party was confident it would retain between one and four MPs in the lower house. He said he was confident the Greens would retain the Queensland seat of Ryan.
The Greens were also behind in the seat of Wills late on Saturday night, despite a huge campaign mounted by the former state leader Samantha Ratnam.
“From the numbers we have tonight, we have had at least a 10% swing towards us,” Ratnam told the Greens election party in Melbourne. “We still have a lot of counting to go – watch this space.”
The Liberals’ attempt to win back ground from the teals also looked set to fail, with Amelia Hamer in Kooyong and Tim Wilson in Goldstein both behind Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel respectively.
Speaking at Trades Hall, Allan said Victoria had yet again defied the polls.
“A lot of commentators and conservative politicians have built a career on kicking down on our state, our party and our unions – and every time we prove them wrong,” the premier said.
“The incredible results for Labor in our state aren’t despite what’s happening in Victoria, but because of what’s happening here in Victoria.”
Tony Barry, a former senior Liberal staffer now with the political consultancy RedBridge, blamed the Liberals’ poor showing in Victoria on the state branch, which has been bitterly divided since the former leader John Pesutto expelled Moira Deeming from the party room in 2023.
At the end of 2024 Deeming won her defamation action against Pesutto, who then lost the leadership of the party. She was promoted by the new leader, Brad Battin, as his “representative to the western suburbs” days before the federal prepoll opened.
“The great problem for the Liberal party as a whole is to rebuild such a broken institution,” Barry said.
